No Surprise: The Detroit Lions Have the Best Odds to Reach Super Bowl LIX

The Detroit Lions are 8-1 for the first time in 70 years. Everything about last year's team that was unprecedented is being trumped on a weekly basis in 2024.

Football fans may be somewhat divided on which team is currently the best in the NFL. The Kansas City Chiefs, despite winning on the final play of the game the past two weeks, are undefeated at 9-0. The Bills are 8-2 with Josh Allen playing some of the best football of his career.

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Both of those teams were acknowledged before the Lions in ESPN's latest article placing all 32 teams into tiers based on their playoff picture status. But only the Detroit Lions have a better chance at reaching the big game.

Unlike last year, the Lions are sitting fairly comfortably in the NFC standings through 10 weeks. The Eagles, Commanders and Vikings are all trailing close behind, but none stand out as Super Bowl contenders quite like the Lions do.

ESPN's article gave each team in the playoff hunt a percentage chance to reach the playoffs, win their division and reach the Super Bowl. The Lions boast incredible odds in all three categories: a 99.4% chance to make the playoffs, an 82.4% chance to win the NFC North, and a 33.9% chance to reach the Super Bowl.

The next closest team by Super Bowl percentage is the Chiefs at 29.7%. The next closest NFC team is the Philadelphia Eagles at 15% and the Green Bay Packers at 10.3%.

The Lions were in a similar situation last year at a later point in the season, despite trailing behind the 49ers in the standings. After the Lions lost out on postseason home-field advantage against the Dallas Cowboys, those chances took a hit. In the end, Detroit fell to San Francisco and missed out on the franchise's first appearance in the Super Bowl.

ESPN suggested that the Lions' target goal in the second half of the season is to secure the top seed in the NFC. If the road to Super Bowl LIX goes through Detroit, the Lions' chances drastically go up.

According to Playoff Status (which does have slightly better odds for Detroit to reach the Super Bowl), the Lions have a 68% chance of clinching the top see in the NFC.