For the second day in a row the most accurate poll over the past three Presidential elections shows Donald Trump holding a 1-point national lead over Hillary Clinton. The International Business Daily poll was the most accurate in 2012 and it also the most accurate when averaged over 2004, 2008 and 2012. Meanwhile Rasmussen shows Trump with a 3-point margin and the Los Angeles Times has Trump up by a point.

Democrats may be feeling very good about their position right now but with 18 days to go I would be careful about being too confident about who will come out on top come November 8th.

After all according the majority of the polls in 2012, Mitt Romney was certain to be elected President. One poll that didn’t find that result was the IBD/TIPP poll.